Analysts at BBH share their near-term outlook for the US Dollar.
“The dollar is trading flat ahead of a record 2-year note auction. DXY is trading flat near 106.087 but remains on track to test the November 1 high near 107.113.”
“The dollar rally should continue as data confirm persistent inflation and robust growth in the US This backdrop along with upcoming heavy UST supply should keep upward pressure on US yields, which would be positive for the dollar. We believe that while market easing expectations have adjusted violently this month, there is still room to go. When the market finally capitulates on the Fed, the dollar should gain further.”
“US yields remain elevated ahead of heavy supply. The 2-year yield is trading at 4.99% and on track to test the October high near 5.26%, while the 10-year yield is trading near 4.61% and on track to test the October high near 5.02%. Heavy supply could help push yields higher. Treasury auctions a total of $183 bln in 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes this week. The first leg is today with $69 bln of 2-year notes to be auctioned. Bid/cover ratio was 2.62 at the previous auction, while indirect bidders took 65.8%. The auctions continue tomorrow with $70 bln of 5-year notes and end Thursday with $44 bln of 7-year notes.”
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