Alvin Liew, Senior Economist at UOB Group, analyzes the latest US labor market data.
“The US economy continued to create jobs at a healthy clip in June, bolstering the economic recovery, though it was not a hot enough print to signal pre-emptive Fed tightening. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) in the United States increased by 850,000 jobs in June, up from 583,000 jobs in May (prelim Est 559,000) and considerably beyond the Bloomberg median estimate of 720,000 jobs. However, the most recent private NFP number (662,000) was lower than the private sector ADP print of 692,000 new jobs announced on Thu (30 June), continuing a trend that has persisted in recent months. Since the COVID-19 outbreak ravaged the US economy in March 2020, the US has added approximately 15.6 million jobs. However, employment is still 7.1 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels (as of February 2020).”
“In June, the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 5.9%. (from 5.8 percent in May). Nonetheless, this was the first time since the epidemic began that the jobless rate fell below 6% in consecutive months (Mar 2020). Despite a stronger jobs report and an unchanged participation rate of 61.6 percent (fr), the minor drop occurred “”(May)”
“Jobs growth was again primarily due to the services sector (642,000), as opposed to the manufacturing sector (+20,000). “Despite the higher-than-expected job creation in June, the market reaction was positive as it continued to view the report as a “Goldilocks” jobs print – robust enough to show the US economic recovery is on track, but not so robust that the numbers are out of whack, as BLS explained…””/n
