USD/CHF is back weighing on its range lows at 0.8930/25. A move below here and then retracement support at 0.8910 is needed to reassert the downmove, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.
“Despite the growing RSI divergence and daily MACD cross that is still in place, the risks seem to be building for a direct resumption of the downtrend and in any case, our broader bias stays lower whilst below 0.9071/98.”
“A closing break below 0.8930/10, which is the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 recovery and May/June lows, would trigger a direct resumption of the core bear trend, with the next level 0.8870.”
“Bigger picture, we still see scope for a test of the 2021 lows at 0.8757.”
“First resistance is seen at 0.9012, then 0.9048/55, above which still confirm a base and open up a move back to the 200-day average at 0.9071, then 0.9098. These levels needs to cap to keep the broader, medium-term risks lower in our view, however, it’s worth noting that the potential ‘measured base objective’ projects a move well beyond here if the pattern is completed.”
