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Further consolidation is now likely in USD/JPY, argue Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group.
24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday that “there is a chance for USD to break above 150.00.” However, we held the view that “the next resistance at 150.50 is unlikely to come into view.” In NY trade, USD popped briefly to a high of 150.16 and then crashed to a low of 147.37 before snapping back up to end the day at 149.02 (-0.55%). The wild swings have resulted in a mixed outlook, and further choppy price action is not ruled out, probably between 148.00 and 149.90.
Next 1-3 weeks: Two days ago (02 Oct, spot at 149.50), we highlighted that USD “could edge upwards, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 148.50/150.50.” We added, “a clear break above 150.50 is unlikely”. Yesterday, USD swung wildly between 148.50 and 150.16. The sharp fluctuations have muddled the near-term outlook. For the time being, USD could trade in a broad range of 145.90/150.50.
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