What’s Next For Alnylam Stock After The Recent 22% Rise?

The stock price of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALNY), a relatively smaller pharmaceutical company with a market capitalization of $18 billion, has seen a 22% rise over the last twenty-one trading days, and we believe the stock will likely continue to rally in the near term. The 22% rise can primarily be attributed to the recent announcement of positive data from a phase three study of Onpattro for patients with hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis (hATTR) with polyneuropathy progression after receiving an orthotopic liver transplant. Note that Onpattro is already approved in multiple countries for the treatment of the polyneuropathy of hATTR amyloidosis in adults. The new findings will help expand the drug’s label. Onpattro’s peak sales are pegged at over $1 billion. Alnylam
ALNY
is currently working on multiple programs, including Givlaari, Oxlumo, and Leqvio, among others, and the developments around the clinical trials for these treatments has kept its stock buzzing of late.

Looking at the recent rally, the 22% rise for ALNY stock over the last twenty-one days compares with a 0.9% growth seen in the broader S&P 500 index. Now that ALNY stock has seen a rise of 22% in twenty-one trading days, can it continue its upward trajectory, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is roughly an equal chance of a rise or fall in ALNY stock over the next month. Out of 335 instances in the last ten years that Alnylam stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 22% or more, 171 of them resulted in ALNY stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 171 out of 335, or about 51% chance of gain in ALNY stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Alnylam Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

That said, given the current momentum in Alnylam, and the positive data from clinical trials will likely result in continued growth in ALNY stock in the near term. In fact, despite the recent 22% rise, the average price estimate of $174 for ALNY reflects a 10% premium to the current market price of $157.

Twenty-one Days: ALNY 22%, vs. S&P500 0.9%; Outperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals stock rose 22% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.9%
• A change of 22% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 335 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 335 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 171 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Days: ALNY 13%, vs. S&P500 0.9%; Outperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals stock rose 13% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.9%
• A change of 13% or more over ten trading days is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 326 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 326 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 162 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.

See all Trefis Featured Analyses and Download Trefis Data here

Read More