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Avis Budget Group‘s stock (NASDAQ: CAR), a global car rental provider, has declined around 23% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at $72. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a 3% growth during the same period. Avis Budget’s major competitor Hertz Global Holdings emerged from bankruptcy earlier this month with a stronger balance sheet and looks well-positioned to take advantage of the growth in demand for car rentals in the U.S. Investors seem to be worried about the return of a competitor. This coupled with the uncertainty around new Covid-19 variants poses a threat to Avis Budget’s plans for their fleet expansion. And, any development that can impact the demand for the company’s services is bound to hurt its stock price. The car rental company’s stock is already up 2x year-to-date.
Now, is CAR stock poised to decline further? We believe the company remains fundamentally undervalued and there could be room for gains in the stock going forward. Specifically, there is a 69% chance of a rise for CAR stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CAR Stock Chances of Rise for more details.
Trefis
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last 10 year data
[1] -7.1% or higher return during five-day period in 328 times out of 2517; Stock rose in the next 5 days in 170 of these 328 instances
[2] -7.8% or higher return during ten-day period in 394 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 10 days in 197 of these 394 instances
[3] -23% or higher return during twenty-one-day period in 97 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 21 days in 67 of these 97 instances
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It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out CAR Stock Comparison With Peers to see how Avis Budget Group compares against peers on metrics that matter.
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