The Australian Bureau of Numbers’ June month employment statistics, due at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. All of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent cautionary pronouncements, as well as extended local lockdowns across Australia, are based on these numbers.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the market expects Employment Change to fall from 115.2K prior readings to 30.0K, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to jump from 5.1 percent to 5.5 percent. Furthermore, the Participation Rate may rise slightly to 66.3 percent, up from 66.2 percent previously.
Aside from the Australian jobs report, the AUD/USD market will be watching China’s second-quarter (Q2) GDP, June’s Retail Sales, and Industrial Production, all of which are due out around 02:00 AM GMT. According to forecasts, headline Q2 GDP will climb 1.2 percent QoQ, up from 0.6 percent previously, but Retail Sales and Industrial Production will likely fall to 11.0 percent and 7.8 percent YOY, respectively, from 12.4 percent and 8.8 percent previously.
According to TD Securities, mixed data is expected.
While the reinstatement of tight lockdowns in some states may have hampered labor market development thus far, we remain confident that the lockdowns will be brief and sharp, allowing the labor market to rebound and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5 percent by year’s end.
Furthermore, according to Westpac analysts,
The Labor Force survey was performed too early to pick up the NSW lockdown, and the June Weekly Payrolls revealed a rebound from the May Victoria lockdowns. In basic words, payrolls show a -0.2 percent drop, but this is likely to be revised up. In original words, our 45k projection (market +20k) for employment is consistent with a flat print.
The Australian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar. Early Thursday saw a rise on Wednesday, but cautious attitude prevailed. The Australian dollar’s recent decline could be attributed to domestic coronavirus (COVID-19) fears as well as reflation concerns, which were re-ignited by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
Despite suggesting modifications in bond purchases, the RBA’s commitment to cheap money could gain even more support if today’s Australian and Chinese data disappoint. As a result, negative important economic data might undo the previous day’s corrective pullback near the yearly bottom.
Technically, MACD is teasing bulls after two months, but the AUD/USD needs a convincing upside breach of the three-week-old resistance line near 0.7485-90 to target the 200-DMA level near 0.7585. Failure to do so, on the other hand, might leave sellers hoping for a new yearly bottom around the 0.7400 level.
On a USD decline, the AUD/USD is approaching 0.7500, with Aussie jobs and China data on the horizon.
Predictions for Australian Employment: In the wake of recent lockdowns, a soft outcome is expected.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Employment Change is a measure of the change in the number of people employed in Australia. A rise in this statistic, in general, has good implications for consumer expenditure, which boosts economic growth. As a result, a high number for the AUD is considered optimistic (or bullish), while a low reading is considered negative (or bearish).
The Australian Bureau of Statistics calculates the unemployment rate by dividing the number of jobless employees by the total civilian labor force. If the rates are raised, it implies that the Australian labor market is not expanding. As a result, a surge causes the Australian economy to suffer. A drop in the figure is considered favorable (or bullish) for the Australian dollar, while an increase is considered negative (or bearish)./n
