share this article!

BRAZIL – November 4, 2020: The Exelixis logo is depicted on a smartphone in this photo illustration. [+] (Image courtesy of Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images)
Getty Images/SOPA Images/LightRocket
After the business disclosed a disappointing outcome from its clinical trials for Cabometyx in previously untreated liver cancer patients, the stock price of Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL), a genomics-based pharmaceuticals company focused on oncology therapies, has dropped by 21% in the last five trading days. While the combination of Cabometyx and Roche’s Tecentriq helped slow disease development, the results were not statistically significant, and the combination’s chances of being approved as a first-line liver cancer treatment remain slim. Cabometyx is already licensed as a first-line treatment for kidney cancer, and Exelixis expects revenue to exceed $1 billion this year. The drug’s extension into liver cancer would have resulted in even larger sales in the future, but investors have lowered their expectations as a result of recent clinical trial findings, as evidenced by the stock’s decrease. Will EXEL stock continue to plummet after falling 20% in just five days, or will it begin to rise in the coming weeks? After a 20% loss in the preceding week, EXEL stock returns average almost -3.7 percent in the next one-month (21 trading days) period, according to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which analyzes trends in the company’s historical stock price data (five trading days). In the short run, we feel it is advisable to avoid EXEL stock.
But how do these figures vary if you choose to hold EXEL shares for a shorter or longer period of time? On the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, you may test the response and many other combinations to see if Exelixis stock would rise following a decline. You can evaluate the likelihood of recovery across time intervals of a quarter, month, or even a single day!
Exelixis Stock Movements: Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs, and Making Sense of Them:
Question 1: Is Exelixis stock’s average return higher following a drop?
Consider the following two scenarios: Case 1: Exelixis’ stock drops by 5% or more in a week.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR YOU
Case 2: The stock of Exelixis grows by at least 5% in a week.
Is the average return on Exelixis stock higher after Case 1 or Case 2 in the following month?
After Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), EXEL stock performs better, with an average return of 4.2 percent over the next month (21 trading days) versus an average return of 2.4 percent for Case 2 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week).
In example, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1 percent in Case 1 and barely 0.5 percent in Case 2 over the next 21 trading days, according to our dashboard, which shows the average return for the S&P 500 after a decline or rise.
Use the Trefis machine learning engine to see how Exelixis stock will react to a given gain or loss over time.
Question 2: Does it pay to be patient?
Answer: If you buy and hold Exelixis stock, you may anticipate near-term swings to fade away over time, and a long-term favorable trend to favor you – at least if the company is otherwise sound.
Overall, facts and Trefis’ machine learning engine estimates show that patience pays off in most stocks!
The following table shows the returns for EXEL stock over the next N days after a -5 percent change over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the returns for the S&P500:

Trefis Average Return
You can use the engine to examine how Exelixis’ table looks following a greater loss in the previous week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: If you wait a bit following a climb, what is the average return?
Answer: As mentioned in the preceding question, the average return after a rise is lower than after a decrease. However, if a company has increased in the recent few days, you should avoid short-term bets in most cases – albeit EXEL stock appears to be an exception to this rule.
By adjusting the variables in the charts above, you can test the trend for yourself for Exelixis stock.
While the price of EXEL stock may fall, the year 2020 has created numerous pricing discontinuities that could provide lucrative trading opportunities. For example, the stock value for Zoetis vs Regeneron is quite counter-intuitive.
Here you may find all of Trefis’ Featured Analyses and Trefis Data./nRead More

share this article!