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SEPTEMBER 12TH, NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NIO logos are shown at a trading… [+] post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during the opening bell on September 12, 2018 in New York City. The Shanghai-based electric vehicle manufacturer’s stock began trading at $6 per share. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images/Drew Angerer)
courtesy of Getty Images
Nio stock (NASDAQ: NIO) has gained about 14% in the last week (five trading days) and is now trading just above $50 per share. A number of things have contributed to the gains. To begin with, after a large sell-off earlier this year, EV stocks look to be regaining popularity with investors, and Nio stock, along with rivals like as Tesla and Li Auto, has experienced modest rises in recent days. Second, Nio is expected to release its June delivery data soon, and investors may be buying the stock in expectation of better results, as the worst of the semiconductor shortage appears to be over. Nio will hold its Nio Power Day event on July 9, where the firm is expected to showcase upgrades to its electric vehicle charging products and services, an area in which the company has been a leader. So, will Nio stock continue to rise in the weeks and months ahead, or will a correction be more likely? After a 14 percent rally over the last five trading days, Nio stock returns average 18 percent in the next month (21 trading days), according to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which analyzes trends in a company’s historical stock price data. The stock is also anticipated to outperform the S&P 500 in the coming month, with an expected return of 16 percent greater than the S&P 500.
But how do these figures vary if you choose to hold NIO stock for a shorter or longer period of time? On the Trefis Machine Learning, you may test the response and many other combinations to see if NIO stock would rise following a dip and vice versa. You can evaluate the likelihood of recovery across time intervals of a quarter, month, or even a single day!
TRY THE MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE FOR YOURSELF:
IF NIO stock moves -5 percent over 5 trading days, THEN NIO stock moves an average of 4.4 percent over the next 21 trading days, with a 51.6 percent likelihood of a positive return over this period.
Furthermore, given a -5 percent move in the stock over 5 trading days, it has historically seen an excess return of 2.3 percent over the next 21 trading days when compared to the S&P500, with a 48.9% likelihood of a positive excess return.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR YOU
Making Sense of NIO Stock Movements: Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs, and Making Sense of NIO Stock Movements:
Question 1: Does Nio stock have a better average return following a drop?
Consider the following two scenarios: Case 1: Nio stock drops by 5% or more in a week.
Case 2: Nio’s stock rises by at least 5% in a week.
Is the average return on Nio stock after Case 1 or Case 2 higher in the following month?
Case 2 performs better than Case 1 (when the company has just experienced a 5% loss during the previous week), with an average return of 4.4 percent over the next month (21 trading days) vs an average return of 16.9 percent for Case 2.
In example, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1 percent in Case 1 and barely 0.5 percent in Case 2 over the next 21 trading days, according to our dashboard, which shows the average return for the S&P 500 after a decline or rise.
Use the Trefis machine learning engine to see how Nio stock will react following a given gain or loss over time.
Question 2: Does it pay to be patient?
Answer: If you buy and retain Nio stock, you may anticipate near-term swings to fade away with time, and a long-term favorable trend to favor you – at least if the firm is otherwise healthy.
Overall, facts and Trefis’ machine learning engine estimates show that patience pays off in most stocks!
The following table shows the returns for NIO stock over the next N days after a -5 percent shift over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the returns for the S&P500:

Trefis Average Return
Question 3: If you wait a bit following a climb, what is the average return?
Answer: As mentioned in the preceding question, the average return after a rise is lower than after a decrease. Surprisingly, if a company has increased in the recent few days, you should avoid short-term bets for most stocks – however NIO stock looks to be an exception to this general rule.
The table below shows NIO’s returns over the next N days after a 5% shift over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the S&P500’s returns:

Trefis Average Return

By adjusting the variables in the charts above, you can test the trend for Nio stock for yourself.
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